Innovation Forecast

With high gasoline and oil prices, it seems to me to be time to consider energy independence and alternative energy sources such as algae biofuel or algal biodiesel.  But is algae biofuel ready for prime time?  To answer the question, Emerging Tech Insights has prepared and published an algae biofuel technology landscape that we invite you to view at no cost.

So far (see previous posts), we have validated the algae biofuel database of 11,934 patents.

• It contains the ideas we expected.
• The database contains the companies we expected.
• The database has the IPC codes we expected.

We also identified some adjacent markets using the 4-digit IPC codes.

Now, we are ready to begin answering the question “What is going on in algae biofuel?”

One way to figure out what is going on in algae biofuel is to use text clustering to extract the computer’s view of the most important keyword and keyword phrases.  We also use a force directed graph to help visualize the relationships among the algae biofuel keywords and keyword phrases.  Starting with 11934 patent titles and abstracts, our clustering program produced 6500 text clusters (single keywords and combinations of keywords) with 20 or more patents per cluster.  You can view the clusters at the text cluster link of the algae biofuel model we have published (see above).

No matter how you slice it, 6500 clusters is quite a lot of information to digest.  To simplify, we will focus on the 100 single-word main clusters.  A picture of the main clusters and the most important relationships among the main cluster keywords (indicated by the light gray lines) is shown in Fig A (below).  In this chart, clusters that are close to one another are more closely related that those that are more distant from each other.  The size of the circle indicates the size of the cluster.  The blue clusters are those that seem to me to be most directly related to algae biofuel.

Sometimes, it is easier to look at a groups of clusters.   In Fig. B,  the clusters are arranged (by the computer) based on the strong links between clusters as indicated by the gray lines.

What does the clustering chart tell us?

• Well, the light blue clusters (upper left) show that expected connections between fatty acids, fuels, fluids and viscosity.  However there is an unexpected and currently (for me) unexplained connection to whey protein, nutrition and flavors.
• We can see certain algae and bacteria types.
  • cyanobacteria (green, upper right)
  • brown algae (red, middle left)
  • Interestingly, we do NOT see a green or microalgae cluster, suggesting that this expected theme is below the clustering threshold.
• The genetics theme is apparent in the upper right in the pink with the polynucleotide and genes and proteins theme.
• In the same pink area of the upper right, we can see unexpected themes:
  • tocopherol, Vitamin E-like compound and
  • astaxanthin, a yellow pigment found in yeast, microalgae,  fish, crustaceans, and birds.
• The algae culture theme appears in the middle right in green.  It connects – as expected – to harvesting, cultivation and devices.  It even connects to the brackish (presumably brackish water) and radiation (presumably sunlight) themes.
• In the center and in yellow, we find waste water streams, one of the sources of “fertilizer” for algal growth.
• In the lower middle, we see a connection between algae and chewing gum.  It was a surprise for me, but it may represent an adjacent market that could be important to the economics of an algae venture.
• In the middle and in blue, we see carragennan, a component of algae that has wide uses in the food industry and in other areas.  At one point, I had a bottle of carragennan on the shelf in my lab for coatings and enrobing experiments.
• On the lower left and in red and two other surprises that we can investigate as alternative markets.
  • metal ions
  • hormones
• Isothazolones (middle left and in red) are water biocides in waste water treatment.  I wonder how we could use this discovery to deal with unwanted infections in ponds?
• See also the spectral – detection themes in dark blue in the upper left.  I don’t know what is in these clusters, but it sounds interesting and sparks my personal curiosity.

At this point, let me turn you loose with these pictures and with the full list of text clusters available from Emerging Tech Insights.   I can see some more specific themes than I could with the more general IPC codes.   Further, the grouping of clusters give me some insights that I will use later to organize more detailed and more business specific segments.

With gasoline prices stuck at over $4.30 per gallon (in my area) and with high oil prices and turmoil in the oil producing regions of the world, the time may have finally come for a serious look at algae biofuel.  IF we are to use algae as a biomass source, it would be helpful if algae had more uses that just to create feedstock for algae biofuel or as a chemical feedstock.   In other words, are there other markets in which algae participate that are not biofuel or chemical feedstock areas – adjacent markets?

Algae Biofuel - Adjacent Markets from IPC Codes

Our algae biofuel patent database and the IPC code distribution can help to further validate our database AND to identify adjacent market for algae products.  Below is a chart showing the top 49 4-digit IPC codes in our database.

WHAT IS AN IPC CODE? An IPC code is a code used by the patenting agencies in the world to help classify an invention.  A patent is assigned one or more IPC codes during the prosecution of the patent application.  Sadly, an IPC code only makes sense to serious patent searchers, a few attorneys and the patent offices.   Yet, they can help us further validate our database AND find adjacent markets for algae biofuel products with ease.  Let’s try.

IPC CODE STRUCTURE. IPC codes consist of a starting letter and a set of numbers and letters to define a code.  The longer the code, the greater is the detail or the narrower the category of the invention.  For example A61K is the code for medical preparations.  A01N is an agricultural code.  How do you know?   Experience and the WIPO website are the only teachers.  If there is a better way to understand these arcane codes, I’d like to hear about it!

MOST FREQUENT IPC CODE.  When I prepare a database like the algae biofuel database, I search each patent for the most frequent 4-digit IPC code.  For example, one patent in the algae biofuel database has the following list of codes assigned to it.

A61K 8/00; A61K 8/18; A61K 8/30; A61K 8/49;

A61K 8/64; A61K 8/96; A61K 8/97;

A61Q 1/00; A61Q 1/02; A61Q 1/04; A61Q 1/10

The most frequent 4-digit IPC code, enough detail for an initial adjacent market study, is A61K.   The algae biofuel IPC code distribution chart is based on the most frequent IPC code for each patent in the algae biofuel database.

VALIDATING THE ALGAE BIOFUEL DATABASE. Examination of the codes in this algae biofuel IPC code distribution chart shows all the codes you might expect to see.

• The B0? codes show the separation methods needed to separate algae biofuel oil from other materials.
• The C10 and C11 codes are expected as these describe the chemistry of oils and waxes.
• The C12 codes contain references to the genetics that the National Algae Biofuel Roadmap emphasizes.

Based on IPC codes, we can expect our database to be able to provide strategically significant answers to questions about algae biofuels and to markets adjacent to algae biofuel.

OBSERVATIONS. In addition to the codes we might expect, there are codes that indicate adjacent markets.

• The A01 codes indicate a relationship between algae and agriculture.  Maybe not a surprise, but it is clearly shown here.
• The A21 and A23 codes indicates a relationship between algae and food that I did not fully expect.   Upon some thought, alginates and similar molecules are additives in many foods.  So maybe it isn’t quite as surprising.
• The powerful spike at A61K indicates a relationship to medical preparations that I had not expected.  Algae’s relationship to cosmetics might have been anticipated upon second thought, but the size of the A61K spike was surprising!
• The presence of inorganic chemistry codes C01, C02 and C05 might be expected on second thought.  After all these are components of fertilizers.  But, what other surprises lurk in this area.
• The connection between the B09 codes, solid waste, and algae were postulated as adjacent markets for algae, and the chart clearly shows the connection.

As we continue to explore the algae biofuel space, I’m sure well find other correlations that are not fully expected.  What are your thoughts or questions?

What difference do adjacent markets make to algae biofuel?  It is always a good idea to be able to use and recycle all components of a biomass or other raw material.  In algae biofuel we are primarily interested in the fats and oils.  Adjacent markets give us the opportunity to offset algae biofuel production costs with profits form other parts of the algae body.

CONCLUSIONS.

The algae biofuel database contains the IPC codes that might be expected based on process flow diagrams.  This further indicates that the database is sufficiently broad to yield valid, meaningful strategic answers to technology and business questions about algae biofuel.

The IPC code distribution for the algae biofuel database contains hints at large, well developed adjacent markets that could offset production costs for algae biofuels.

OUR OFFER.  You are welcome to browse the data that supports our conclusions.  Just click on this link.  Then, after a short registration, you have FREE ACCESS to the data from which the conclusions are drawn.

Algae biofuel represents a needed future technology in my view.  But is it real?  When will algae biofuel finally hit and be commercially important?  Who has the technological lead in algae biofuel today?  Who tomorrow?  What are the barriers to commercializing algae biofuel?   What products can emerge?

To answer these and other business related, technology development and new product development questions, we will run a strategic technology analysis of algae biofuel.   A strategic technology analysis is a multi-step process.

Strategic Technology Analysis Process

1. Define the study area
2. Build a database of patents
3. Organize 
4. Measure technology developments – to manage them
5. Visualize technology developments – to explain them
6. Summarize
7. Conclude/Action

The first step, defining the area, was fairly straight forward in this case.  We wanted to know about algae biofuel or algal biodiesel.   Interestingly, the definition process is not always so easy, and we have developed a form “twelve steps to define a project” to help frame the problem in that situation.

The second step is to build a databases of patents for a commercialization study like the algae biofuel study.  To build the database, I typically employ one of three commercial patent sources (PatSnap, Delphion or Micropatent) for bulk patent data.  Do you have a favorite source of bulk data?  Care to share it?

Building a strategically usefully broad patent database involves a little research first.  It helps to better understand the process for making algae biofuel as process keywords can be extracted with relative ease.  Fortunately, a Google search reveals multiple process diagrams – Algae Biofuels: The Process – among many others.  Other keywords come from simply reading articles, publications, patent and posts about algae biofuel.   For this project, the National Algae Biofuel Technology Roadmap was an unusually compact source of keywords to form main patent search strategies.

For the algae biofuel strategic technology assessment, we employed the vocabulary below in multiple crisscrossing, overlapping, full-text search strategies to build the strategic technology assessment database for algae biofuel.

Search Strategies for the Algae Biofuel Database

The result was a database that contained a total of 11,934 patents and applications from the US, EP, WIPO and from the Abstracts of Japan.   We quality checked the database to see that it contained the companies we expected to see and that it contained the ideas we expected. to see.  The algae biofuel database passed our tests and we declared it “fit for study” and expect it to provide strategically useful insights.

Patenting Activity from Algae Biofuel Database

To gain insights into algae biofuels, we must make measurements in our database.  Our first measurement is the plot of  patenting activity from the algae biofuel database.    The chart (right) shows a strong and current interest in commercializing algae biofuel products.  The algae biofuel area with 11,900+ patents  is not really small, but it is probably not yet “worked out”. The chart suggests that those organizations who are sitting on the sidelines waiting to come into the area should consider moving soon or risk exclusion by current players.

Algae Biofuel Patenting Distribution

The algae biofuel patenting agency distribution pie chart (left) shows that interest in algae biofuel is worldwide.  This chart also suggests that organizations that are monitoring for the right time to become involved might consider moving soon.

Our initial measurements show that our database of patents is robust as it contains he key ideas and the key companies.  The area is not too big to participate if you are not already in the game.  Our first very simple charts show that the algae biofuel space is  in rapid growth.  The growth is not confined to the US, but is worldwide in scope.   So, the sideline sitters be warned.  Monitor the algae biofuel space closely or miss the opportunity to participate in an emerging growth opportunity!

With all these preliminaries behind us, we are ready to delve deeper by using text clustering to discover relationships among the words in the database and by using categorization and segmentation to measure and visualize the key technology trends that can make or break product development efforts.

Emerging Tech INSIGHTS invites you to browse the algae biofuel technology landscape with us as we explore the space.  Click the link. Fill in the brief registration and browse the technology landscape model FREE.