Is algae biofuel ready to help with high oil and gas costs? Is algae biofuel technology ready for prime time commercialization and product development? What segments in algae biofuel are growing rapidly. Which algae biofuel segments have already begun to slow?
We can answer the growth rate questions using a Vitality Plot (TM) measurement. Here’s how it works.
Measuring the relative growth rate of segments for alge biofuel
We start with our validated database and our segmentation model (see previous posts). In A, we divide the database into two parts (Group 1 and Group 2) where Group 1 represents the newest 15% of the patents. Then for each segment, we ask what fraction of the the patents in the segment belong to Groups 1 and 2, essentially giving us a “composition” measurement for each segment.
In B above, you can see that distribution of ‘compositions’ for the segments in the algae biofuel database.
- Segments along the diagonal in B are growing at the same rate as the database as a whole.
- Segments below the diagonal are growing faster than the database as a whole. The fraction of Group 1 patents is greater than 15%.
- Segments above the diagonal are growing slower than the database as a whole. The fraction of Group 2 patents is less than 15%.
- The interesting small signals for all the things that are new and unique and growing fast or slow appear near the origin of the picture in B where they are hard to spot.
To make the small signals more visible, we transform “B” into “C” using linear scaling and a bit of high school trigonometry. In Figure C, the geometric transformation yields a rating of -1 to +1 for each segment in our technology landscape model.
- -1 means segment contains only patents from Group 2, the past, Older Years.
- 0 means the age composition of the patents in a segment are equivalent in composition age to the whole database.
- +1 means the segment is totally new and all from Group 1. It is growing rapidly and much faster than the database as a whole!. Watch for these. It’s an early warning signal for new things coming.
- Y-axis measures the size of the segment in the database. We use this to spread out the data for easier viewing.
The format in Figure C clearly highlights segments that are growing unusually fast (red) or unusually slowly (blue). Later, we can highlight the segments in which a company, organization or inventor participates and MEASURE the quality of their R&D program.
SO…… What is new and growing rapidly (or slowing) in algae biofuel? We can find out from our algae biofuel segment Vitality Plot (below). Necessarily, this picture is a bit smaller than the original, but you can access (free) the original algae biofuel Vitality Plot starting from this link. Click to Access (FREE).
Algae biofuel Vitality Plot MEASURES acceleration for each segment in algae biofuel technology landscape.
The green highlights in the figure above are segments that (in my opinion) are key to the question of whether algae biofuel is ready for prime time product development.
If we are interested in coming events (things that could surprise you in your R&D program or next areas for investment) in algae biofuel, take a look in the low right corner. Interestingly, one of the newer and smaller segments is electrolytic filter for separations. Another emerging area is the text cluster for biomass/growth/lipids.
Equally interesting are those segments in the blue. These are areas that are slowing, suggesting that the problem they represent has been abandoned or solved and where further investment may not be warranted.
Another way to use the Vitality Plot(TM) is to use it to see if a company’s investments are are in growth areas. In figure below, the segments in which Solarzyme has invested (holds one or more patents) are highlighted in pink.
Investments for Solarzime in algae biofuel
Solarzyme’s investments are concentrated in some of the newest and most active of the segments in the algae biofuel technology landscape. We will later use this type of data to compare company investment portfolios in the algae biofuel area.
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